2007/04/22

港股克己應有後福


美股上周五繼續挺進創出新高,對結算前港股應可帶來一定支持,只要國內無突發事故出現,四月份看來可以守得住現水平。
是否又應那句Sell in May and Walk Away?是很多人心目中疑問,當然也是嘉豪心目中疑問。不過在踏進○七年以來,可以見得到港股十分克己,並未追隨內地股市玩瘋狂尋頂遊戲,預料它日縱使泡沫爆破,我們的損傷程度也可望溫和得多,起碼應不致於出現恐慌性拋售場面。
「恆/國指比率」正在考驗十天線支持,其實現水平與二十天線所差也有限,隨時一個宏調動作,已經足以到步,若成功玩對沖賺了利潤在手,應該是時候離場觀望了。

日...恆/國........與平均比率差距........
期...指比率.5MA.. 10MA (+-%)..20MA (+-%)..50MA (+-%)
06/01/27 250.96% 253.24% 257.03%(-2.36%) 264.61%(-5.16%) 280.84%(-10.6%)
06/02/28 244.67% 239.28% 239.83%( 2.02%) 241.85%( 1.17%) 259.92%(-5.87%)
06/03/31 235.76% 236.91% 239.36%(-1.50%) 242.92%(-2.95%) 244.09%(-3.41%)
06/04/28 243.76% 241.71% 239.31%( 1.86%) 238.59%( 2.17%) 240.95%( 1.17%)
06/05/30 237.90% 237.68% 235.64%( 0.96%) 235.01%( 1.23%) 237.86%( 0.01%)
06/06/30 239.77% 243.60% 248.77%(-3.61%) 248.32%(-3.44%) 241.25%(-0.61%)
06/07/31 248.50% 247.22% 245.71%( 1.14%) 243.96%( 1.86%) 244.63%( 1.58%)
06/08/31 252.72% 248.54% 247.19%( 2.24%) 247.12%( 2.26%) 245.66%( 2.87%)
06/09/29 247.18% 247.50% 247.89%(-0.29%) 247.84%(-0.27%) 247.68%(-0.20%)
06/10/31 244.84% 243.69% 243.01%( 0.75%) 245.41%(-0.24%) 246.84%(-0.81%)
06/11/30 221.85% 224.86% 225.89%(-1.79%) 232.25%(-4.48%) 240.49%(-7.75%)
06/12/29 193.08% 196.42% 202.78%(-4.79%) 210.04%(-8.07%) 226.0%(-14.57%)
07/01/31 209.39% 209.48% 208.09%( 0.62%) 204.13%( 2.58%) 209.41%(-0.01%)
07/02/28 211.68% 209.01% 208.07%( 1.73%) 209.50%( 1.04%) 205.25%( 3.13%)
07/03/30 205.91% 206.29% 207.60%(-0.81%) 209.13%(-1.54%) 209.31%(-1.63%)
...............................
07/040/2 205.43% 205.99% 207.26%(-0.88%) 208.46%(-1.45%) 209.35%(-1.87%)
07/04/03 205.70% 205.94% 206.90%(-0.58%) 207.96%(-1.09%) 209.33%(-1.74%)
07/04/04 204.98% 205.70% 206.43%(-0.70%) 207.55%(-1.24%) 209.30%(-2.07%)
07/04/10 203.22% 205.05% 205.83%(-1.27%) 207.24%(-1.94%) 209.19%(-2.86%)
07/04/11 201.47% 204.16% 205.22%(-1.83%) 206.95%(-2.65%) 209.06%(-3.63%)
07/04/12 200.53% 203.18% 204.58%(-1.98%) 206.58%(-2.93%) 208.88%(-4.00%)
07/04/13 200.28% 202.09% 204.02%(-1.83%) 206.17%(-2.86%) 208.69%(-4.03%)
07/04/16 201.26% 201.35% 203.53%(-1.11%) 205.77%(-2.19%) 208.53%(-3.49%)
07/04/17 200.93% 200.89% 202.97%(-1.01%) 205.39%(-2.17%) 208.36%(-3.57%)
07/04/18 200.52% 200.70% 202.43%(-0.94%) 205.02%(-2.19%) 208.18%(-3.68%)
07/04/19 202.40% 201.08% 202.13%( 0.14%) 204.69%(-1.12%) 207.95%(-2.67%)
07/04/20 202.03% 201.43% 201.76%( 0.13%) 204.33%(-1.12%) 207.70%(-2.73%)

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