二不離三？

中美議息在即，最新行情是預估日本不加、美國減25%，由於兩者息差收窄有限，加上安倍下台，日圓匯價又再滑落，短期內出現利差交易拆倉潮可能性，應該大幅降低。

一如市場所預期，內地公布增加存款息率0.27%，影響力基本上已經早被消化，可惜對壓抑市場熱度，幾乎產生不到任何效果，看來中央免不了要在短期內加大股票流通量，減持手中國企股權。

恆指RSI(9)升近90，年內曾經四次出現同樣超買情況，但每次皆只出現兩三天呆滯，然後便再發力向上；假使這回模式不變，港股隨時一待議息完結，周三即開展另一升浪。

「恆/國指比率」如所料稍作調整，支持力應在50天線，距目前約2%，看來北水直通車「減速」引起的套利行動已經接近完成，國指比恆指強的鏡頭又將出現；如果大家留意附上的三年小圖，會發現對上兩年每接近年底時，「恆/國指比率」都會出現一個大型升浪，是否二不離三，自已估下喇。

嘉豪去周僅炒了三幾轉「即日鮮」，更把ＭＰＦ持現金比例提高至九成，先等待調整抑或重新追入，還待看過議息後環境方作定奪。

日．．．恆／國．．．．．．．．與平均比率差距．．．．．．．．
期．．．指比率．5MA．． 10MA (+-%)．．20MA (+-%)．．50MA (+-%)
06/01/27 250.96% 253.24% 257.03%(-2.36%) 264.61%(-5.16%) 280.84%(-10.6%)
06/02/28 244.67% 239.28% 239.83%( 2.02%) 241.85%( 1.17%) 259.92%(-5.87%)
06/03/31 235.76% 236.91% 239.36%(-1.50%) 242.92%(-2.95%) 244.09%(-3.41%)
06/04/28 243.76% 241.71% 239.31%( 1.86%) 238.59%( 2.17%) 240.95%( 1.17%)
06/05/30 237.90% 237.68% 235.64%( 0.96%) 235.01%( 1.23%) 237.86%( 0.01%)
06/06/30 239.77% 243.60% 248.77%(-3.61%) 248.32%(-3.44%) 241.25%(-0.61%)
06/07/31 248.50% 247.22% 245.71%( 1.14%) 243.96%( 1.86%) 244.63%( 1.58%)
06/08/31 252.72% 248.54% 247.19%( 2.24%) 247.12%( 2.26%) 245.66%( 2.87%)
06/09/29 247.18% 247.50% 247.89%(-0.29%) 247.84%(-0.27%) 247.68%(-0.20%)
06/10/31 244.84% 243.69% 243.01%( 0.75%) 245.41%(-0.24%) 246.84%(-0.81%)
06/11/30 221.85% 224.86% 225.89%(-1.79%) 232.25%(-4.48%) 240.49%(-7.75%)
06/12/29 193.08% 196.42% 202.78%(-4.79%) 210.04%(-8.07%) 226.0%(-14.57%)
07/01/31 209.39% 209.48% 208.09%( 0.62%) 204.13%( 2.58%) 209.41%(-0.01%)
07/02/28 211.68% 209.01% 208.07%( 1.73%) 209.50%( 1.04%) 205.25%( 3.13%)
07/03/30 205.91% 206.29% 207.60%(-0.81%) 209.13%(-1.54%) 209.31%(-1.63%)
07/04/30 202.48% 201.80% 201.58%( 0.45%) 202.55%(-0.03%) 206.66%(-2.02%)
07/05/31 192.14% 193.12% 192.57%(-0.23%) 194.69%(-1.31%) 200.41%(-4.13%)
07/06/29 181.42% 181.97% 181.71%(-0.16%) 185.35%(-2.12%) 192.39%(-5.70%)
07/07/31 173.49% 174.14% 175.45%(-1.12%) 175.58%(-1.19%) 182.62%(-5.00%)
07/08/31 167.27% 167.99% 172.23%(-2.88%) 175.76%(-4.83%) 176.45%(-5.21%)
．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
07/09/03 167.20% 167.72% 170.90%(-2.17%) 175.18%(-4.56%) 176.20%(-5.11%)
07/09/04 166.58% 167.54% 169.90%(-1.95%) 174.48%(-4.52%) 175.91%(-5.30%)
07/09/05 168.47% 167.60% 169.16%(-0.41%) 173.98%(-3.17%) 175.62%(-4.07%)
07/09/06 166.75% 167.25% 168.29%(-0.92%) 173.46%(-3.87%) 175.31%(-4.88%)
07/09/07 165.52% 166.90% 167.45%(-1.15%) 172.86%(-4.25%) 174.98%(-5.41%)
07/09/10 166.54% 166.77% 167.25%(-0.42%) 172.32%(-3.35%) 174.68%(-4.66%)
07/09/11 164.52% 166.36% 166.95%(-1.46%) 171.67%(-4.17%) 174.40%(-5.67%)
07/09/12 169.61% 166.59% 167.09%( 1.51%) 171.24%(-0.95%) 174.23%(-2.65%)
07/09/13 169.93% 167.22% 167.24%( 1.61%) 170.63%(-0.41%) 174.09%(-2.39%)
07/09/14 169.28% 167.98% 167.44%( 1.10%) 169.83%(-0.32%) 173.92%(-2.67%)