認沽又大賣

近幾個月升市，好多股仔冇運行，而八月中Ｖ形反彈後，升勢尤其集中於主流股，散戶要搵食，多數轉投窩輪市場，近兩周場面更愈演愈烈，一再創造出逾300億成交。

指數處高位反覆，最受熱捧係指數認沽證，去周三至五，合共締造了93億成交，比諸認購證53億足足高75%。記得八月底也曾有多天出現相若情況，結果港股稍橫行調整後，三兩下手勢便推升至另一高峰，認沽者贏完粒糖輸間廠；小弟則慶幸自己無大貪，及時食胡避開一劫。

歷史係咪會再度重覆，嘉豪手中沒有水晶球去預測，但若說目前市況瘋狂，已經離開基本面而快將急跌，那上月底又何嘗不是？查實目前係資金玩晒，超買後可以更加超買，連港交所(388)一類大股也被單日舞高弄低十個八個巴仙時，眾醉獨醒者反而吃虧，此所以認沽雖無錯，但是否賺錢又屬另一回事。

我覺得，要穩陣買認沽，還是宜等待市況正式連日調整時，畢竟自Ｖ形反彈以來，港股從未出現連跌三天，何不候到出現例外鏡頭，方才放手一試？

日．．．恆／國．．．．．．．．與平均比率差距．．．．．．．．
期．．．指比率．5MA．． 10MA (+-%)．．20MA (+-%)．．50MA (+-%)
06/01/27 250.96% 253.24% 257.03%(-2.36%) 264.61%(-5.16%) 280.84%(-10.6%)
06/02/28 244.67% 239.28% 239.83%( 2.02%) 241.85%( 1.17%) 259.92%(-5.87%)
06/03/31 235.76% 236.91% 239.36%(-1.50%) 242.92%(-2.95%) 244.09%(-3.41%)
06/04/28 243.76% 241.71% 239.31%( 1.86%) 238.59%( 2.17%) 240.95%( 1.17%)
06/05/30 237.90% 237.68% 235.64%( 0.96%) 235.01%( 1.23%) 237.86%( 0.01%)
06/06/30 239.77% 243.60% 248.77%(-3.61%) 248.32%(-3.44%) 241.25%(-0.61%)
06/07/31 248.50% 247.22% 245.71%( 1.14%) 243.96%( 1.86%) 244.63%( 1.58%)
06/08/31 252.72% 248.54% 247.19%( 2.24%) 247.12%( 2.26%) 245.66%( 2.87%)
06/09/29 247.18% 247.50% 247.89%(-0.29%) 247.84%(-0.27%) 247.68%(-0.20%)
06/10/31 244.84% 243.69% 243.01%( 0.75%) 245.41%(-0.24%) 246.84%(-0.81%)
06/11/30 221.85% 224.86% 225.89%(-1.79%) 232.25%(-4.48%) 240.49%(-7.75%)
06/12/29 193.08% 196.42% 202.78%(-4.79%) 210.04%(-8.07%) 226.0%(-14.57%)
07/01/31 209.39% 209.48% 208.09%( 0.62%) 204.13%( 2.58%) 209.41%(-0.01%)
07/02/28 211.68% 209.01% 208.07%( 1.73%) 209.50%( 1.04%) 205.25%( 3.13%)
07/03/30 205.91% 206.29% 207.60%(-0.81%) 209.13%(-1.54%) 209.31%(-1.63%)
07/04/30 202.48% 201.80% 201.58%( 0.45%) 202.55%(-0.03%) 206.66%(-2.02%)
07/05/31 192.14% 193.12% 192.57%(-0.23%) 194.69%(-1.31%) 200.41%(-4.13%)
07/06/29 181.42% 181.97% 181.71%(-0.16%) 185.35%(-2.12%) 192.39%(-5.70%)
07/07/31 173.49% 174.14% 175.45%(-1.12%) 175.58%(-1.19%) 182.62%(-5.00%)
07/08/31 167.27% 167.99% 172.23%(-2.88%) 175.76%(-4.83%) 176.45%(-5.21%)
．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
07/09/24 161.84% 165.29% 166.74%(-2.94%) 166.99%(-3.08%) 172.84%(-6.36%)
07/09/25 162.52% 164.36% 166.54%(-2.41%) 166.75%(-2.53%) 172.57%(-5.82%)
07/09/27 162.61% 163.38% 165.84%(-1.95%) 166.47%(-2.32%) 172.25%(-5.60%)
07/09/28 159.49% 162.23% 164.80%(-3.22%) 166.02%(-3.93%) 171.87%(-7.20%)
07/10/02 156.89% 160.67% 163.56%(-4.08%) 165.50%(-5.20%) 171.46%(-8.50%)
07/10/03 158.68% 160.04% 162.67%(-2.45%) 165.07%(-3.87%) 171.13%(-7.27%)
07/10/04 161.26% 159.79% 162.07%(-0.50%) 164.81%(-2.15%) 170.87%(-5.63%)
07/10/05 158.67% 159.00% 161.19%(-1.56%) 164.32%(-3.43%) 170.56%(-6.97%)