好友唔心急

「恆/國指比率」自上月中創出148.93%後，近期表現明顯偏弱，5天及10天平均線，雙雙掉頭向下兼穿越了20天平均線，下一級將要考驗50天線承托力。

估後市，嘉豪傾向相信這一陣國指只是處於調整，3年圖上的「大斜線」支持不易被改變，最樂觀的預測是頂多捱埋這個星期，稍為touch一下50天線便完成調整，然後重新揮軍上路；再提多句，這裡所謂強弱，是國指相對恆指表現而言，而非直接的指數升降。

至於大市走勢，其實也如去周初所料般，待FED議息後即出現調整，只差了未估中大戶會努力托多一天，到周四晚美市才發力沽貨。畢竟現時尚處月初，而且調整僅幾個百分點，對好友來說，不應該心急收服失地，我相信策略會以穩守為主，甚至趁機沽一點貨套利，讓指數再跌低些，然後方在較低位起步建倉。欲吸貨者，本周初不妨繼續忍耐，起碼要見20天線才值得投進第一注，ＭＰＦ策略也如是。

日．．．恆／國．．．．．．．．與平均比率差距．．．．．．．．
期．．．指比率．5MA．． 10MA (+-%)．．20MA (+-%)．．50MA (+-%)
06/01/27 250.96% 253.24% 257.03%(-2.36%) 264.61%(-5.16%) 280.84%(-10.6%)
06/02/28 244.67% 239.28% 239.83%( 2.02%) 241.85%( 1.17%) 259.92%(-5.87%)
06/03/31 235.76% 236.91% 239.36%(-1.50%) 242.92%(-2.95%) 244.09%(-3.41%)
06/04/28 243.76% 241.71% 239.31%( 1.86%) 238.59%( 2.17%) 240.95%( 1.17%)
06/05/30 237.90% 237.68% 235.64%( 0.96%) 235.01%( 1.23%) 237.86%( 0.01%)
06/06/30 239.77% 243.60% 248.77%(-3.61%) 248.32%(-3.44%) 241.25%(-0.61%)
06/07/31 248.50% 247.22% 245.71%( 1.14%) 243.96%( 1.86%) 244.63%( 1.58%)
06/08/31 252.72% 248.54% 247.19%( 2.24%) 247.12%( 2.26%) 245.66%( 2.87%)
06/09/29 247.18% 247.50% 247.89%(-0.29%) 247.84%(-0.27%) 247.68%(-0.20%)
06/10/31 244.84% 243.69% 243.01%( 0.75%) 245.41%(-0.24%) 246.84%(-0.81%)
06/11/30 221.85% 224.86% 225.89%(-1.79%) 232.25%(-4.48%) 240.49%(-7.75%)
06/12/29 193.08% 196.42% 202.78%(-4.79%) 210.04%(-8.07%) 226.0%(-14.57%)
07/01/31 209.39% 209.48% 208.09%( 0.62%) 204.13%( 2.58%) 209.41%(-0.01%)
07/02/28 211.68% 209.01% 208.07%( 1.73%) 209.50%( 1.04%) 205.25%( 3.13%)
07/03/30 205.91% 206.29% 207.60%(-0.81%) 209.13%(-1.54%) 209.31%(-1.63%)
07/04/30 202.48% 201.80% 201.58%( 0.45%) 202.55%(-0.03%) 206.66%(-2.02%)
07/05/31 192.14% 193.12% 192.57%(-0.23%) 194.69%(-1.31%) 200.41%(-4.13%)
07/06/29 181.42% 181.97% 181.71%(-0.16%) 185.35%(-2.12%) 192.39%(-5.70%)
07/07/31 173.49% 174.14% 175.45%(-1.12%) 175.58%(-1.19%) 182.62%(-5.00%)
07/08/31 167.27% 167.99% 172.23%(-2.88%) 175.76%(-4.83%) 176.45%(-5.21%)
07/09/28 159.49% 162.23% 164.80%(-3.22%) 166.02%(-3.93%) 171.87%(-7.20%)
．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
07/10/02 156.89% 160.67% 163.56%(-4.08%) 165.50%(-5.20%) 171.46%(-8.50%)
07/10/03 158.68% 160.04% 162.67%(-2.45%) 165.07%(-3.87%) 171.13%(-7.27%)
07/10/04 161.26% 159.79% 162.07%(-0.50%) 164.81%(-2.15%) 170.87%(-5.63%)
07/10/05 158.67% 159.00% 161.19%(-1.56%) 164.32%(-3.43%) 170.56%(-6.97%)
07/10/08 158.58% 158.82% 160.52%(-1.21%) 163.91%(-3.25%) 170.25%(-6.86%)
07/10/09 158.22% 159.08% 159.88%(-1.04%) 163.54%(-3.25%) 169.93%(-6.89%)
07/10/10 156.24% 158.59% 159.32%(-1.93%) 163.03%(-4.17%) 169.56%(-7.86%)
07/10/11 151.59% 156.66% 158.22%(-4.19%) 162.38%(-6.65%)169.12%(-10.37%)
07/10/12 151.13% 155.15% 157.08%(-3.78%) 161.46%(-6.39%)168.65%(-10.39%)
07/10/15 149.55% 153.35% 156.08%(-4.18%) 160.44%(-6.79%)168.11%(-11.04%)
07/10/16 148.93% 151.49% 155.29%(-4.09%) 159.42%(-6.58%)167.56%(-11.12%)
07/10/17 151.85% 150.61% 154.60%(-1.78%) 158.63%(-4.27%) 167.02%(-9.08%)
07/10/18 149.40% 150.17% 153.42%(-2.62%) 157.75%(-5.29%)166.40%(-10.22%)
07/10/22 150.85% 150.12% 152.64%(-1.17%) 156.91%(-3.86%) 165.84%(-9.04%)
07/10/23 149.60% 150.13% 151.74%(-1.41%) 156.13%(-4.18%) 165.30%(-9.49%)
07/10/24 149.75% 150.29% 150.89%(-0.75%) 155.38%(-3.62%) 164.74%(-9.10%)
07/10/25 152.70% 150.46% 150.54%( 1.44%) 154.93%(-1.44%) 164.25%(-7.03%)
07/10/26 155.54% 151.69% 150.93%( 3.05%) 154.58%( 0.62%) 163.81%(-5.05%)
07/10/29 156.42% 152.80% 151.46%( 3.27%) 154.27%( 1.39%) 163.37%(-4.26%)
07/10/30 155.09% 153.90% 152.01%( 2.02%) 154.05%( 0.68%) 162.83%(-4.76%)
07/10/31 156.41% 155.23% 152.76%( 2.39%) 154.02%( 1.55%) 162.25%(-3.60%)
07/11/01 155.81% 155.85% 153.16%( 1.73%) 153.88%( 1.26%) 161.76%(-3.68%)
07/11/02 155.93% 155.93% 153.81%( 1.38%) 153.61%( 1.51%) 161.35%(-3.36%)