考驗五十天線

周內「美升港唔升、美跌港大跌」，緊接剛周五杜指與標普挫逾2%，相信下周港股甫開，恆指便將衝擊五十天線(將處約21,920)。屆時要進行甚麼行動，抑或純粹靜觀其變，趁這兩天空閒，應該早想好策略相迎。

嘉豪尚持有兩隻冷門股(包括茶煙飯日東科技(365))，雖僅佔手中組合不足一成，但觀去周五非指數股份成交額，降至170億或總成交中不足23%，預期資金仍會持續抽離，使短期內難有發圍機會，所以最佳策略是先出貨避鋒頭。至於ＭＰＦ，原預算屆五十天線即把餘下50%現金換入中華威力，但觀目前勢頭，決定修改為先入25%，留下最後半注，待港股繼續下探時再買進。

「恆/國指比率」五十天線現升至約180%，年內此線僅曾短暫於二月至三月中失守，國指比恆指強的大形勢依然不變，因此估計近期相對弱勢的Ｈ股指數，抗跌力會逐漸轉強；當然，這不等同將會就此反彈回升，只是未必會比恆指股跌得多而已。

美國次按影響何時淡化(或能否淡化)，大家都唔知道，不過港股始終有中國因素支持，中長線向好睇法應錯不到那裡，只是在確認真正展開回升之前，估底撈貨輸贏機會五十五十，忍不住出手的話，也只宜輕注兼分段進行。


日．．．恆／國．．．．．．．．與平均比率差距．．．．．．．．
期．．．指比率．5MA．． 10MA (+-%)．．20MA (+-%)．．50MA (+-%)
06/01/27 250.96% 253.24% 257.03%(-2.36%) 264.61%(-5.16%) 280.84%(-10.6%)
06/02/28 244.67% 239.28% 239.83%( 2.02%) 241.85%( 1.17%) 259.92%(-5.87%)
06/03/31 235.76% 236.91% 239.36%(-1.50%) 242.92%(-2.95%) 244.09%(-3.41%)
06/04/28 243.76% 241.71% 239.31%( 1.86%) 238.59%( 2.17%) 240.95%( 1.17%)
06/05/30 237.90% 237.68% 235.64%( 0.96%) 235.01%( 1.23%) 237.86%( 0.01%)
06/06/30 239.77% 243.60% 248.77%(-3.61%) 248.32%(-3.44%) 241.25%(-0.61%)
06/07/31 248.50% 247.22% 245.71%( 1.14%) 243.96%( 1.86%) 244.63%( 1.58%)
06/08/31 252.72% 248.54% 247.19%( 2.24%) 247.12%( 2.26%) 245.66%( 2.87%)
06/09/29 247.18% 247.50% 247.89%(-0.29%) 247.84%(-0.27%) 247.68%(-0.20%)
06/10/31 244.84% 243.69% 243.01%( 0.75%) 245.41%(-0.24%) 246.84%(-0.81%)
06/11/30 221.85% 224.86% 225.89%(-1.79%) 232.25%(-4.48%) 240.49%(-7.75%)
06/12/29 193.08% 196.42% 202.78%(-4.79%) 210.04%(-8.07%) 226.0%(-14.57%)
07/01/31 209.39% 209.48% 208.09%( 0.62%) 204.13%( 2.58%) 209.41%(-0.01%)
07/02/28 211.68% 209.01% 208.07%( 1.73%) 209.50%( 1.04%) 205.25%( 3.13%)
07/03/30 205.91% 206.29% 207.60%(-0.81%) 209.13%(-1.54%) 209.31%(-1.63%)
07/04/30 202.48% 201.80% 201.58%( 0.45%) 202.55%(-0.03%) 206.66%(-2.02%)
07/05/31 192.14% 193.12% 192.57%(-0.23%) 194.69%(-1.31%) 200.41%(-4.13%)
07/06/29 181.42% 181.97% 181.71%(-0.16%) 185.35%(-2.12%) 192.39%(-5.70%)
．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
07/07/03 178.55% 181.43% 181.20%(-1.46%) 184.80%(-3.39%) 191.95%(-6.98%)
07/07/04 178.12% 180.46% 180.82%(-1.50%) 184.22%(-3.31%) 191.47%(-6.97%)
07/07/05 176.92% 179.41% 180.30%(-1.88%) 183.61%(-3.65%) 190.96%(-7.36%)
07/07/06 177.67% 178.54% 180.09%(-1.34%) 183.06%(-2.94%) 190.50%(-6.73%)
07/07/09 175.19% 177.29% 179.63%(-2.47%) 182.32%(-3.91%) 189.99%(-7.79%)
07/07/10 173.10% 176.20% 178.82%(-3.20%) 181.51%(-4.63%) 189.41%(-8.61%)
07/07/11 173.86% 175.35% 177.91%(-2.28%) 180.75%(-3.81%) 188.86%(-7.94%)
07/07/12 174.95% 174.96% 177.18%(-1.26%) 180.05%(-2.83%) 188.31%(-7.09%)
07/07/13 174.99% 174.42% 176.48%(-0.84%) 179.35%(-2.43%) 187.76%(-6.80%)
07/07/16 176.08% 174.60% 175.94%( 0.08%) 178.83%(-1.54%) 187.20%(-5.94%)
07/07/17 176.25% 175.23% 175.71%( 0.31%) 178.46%(-1.23%) 186.65%(-5.57%)
07/07/18 178.47% 176.15% 175.75%( 1.55%) 178.29%( 0.10%) 186.20%(-4.15%)
07/07/19 178.64% 176.89% 175.92%( 1.55%) 178.11%( 0.30%) 185.79%(-3.85%)
07/07/20 177.09% 177.31% 175.86%( 0.70%) 177.97%(-0.49%) 185.37%(-4.46%)
07/07/23 175.41% 177.17% 175.89%(-0.27%) 177.76%(-1.32%) 184.91%(-5.14%)
07/07/24 174.12% 176.75% 175.99%(-1.06%) 177.40%(-1.85%) 184.47%(-5.61%)
07/07/25 174.35% 175.92% 176.04%(-0.96%) 176.97%(-1.48%) 184.02%(-5.26%)
07/07/26 173.78% 174.95% 175.92%(-1.22%) 176.55%(-1.57%) 183.66%(-5.38%)
07/07/27 174.61% 174.45% 175.88%(-0.72%) 176.18%(-0.89%) 183.32%(-4.75%)
07/07/30 174.51% 174.27% 175.72%(-0.69%) 175.83%(-0.75%) 182.99%(-4.64%)
07/07/31 173.49% 174.14% 175.45%(-1.12%) 175.58%(-1.19%) 182.62%(-5.00%)
07/08/01 174.81% 174.24% 175.08%(-0.15%) 175.41%(-0.34%) 182.27%(-4.09%)
07/08/02 176.60% 174.80% 174.88%( 0.98%) 175.40%( 0.68%) 181.95%(-2.94%)
07/08/03 176.36% 175.15% 174.80%( 0.89%) 175.33%( 0.59%) 181.64%(-2.90%)