提防炒低

為國際賽忙得頭昏腦脹，連寫Blog 也沒時間，不過「斷稿」兩周以來，港股其實只保持在範圍內炒上炒落，並無出現明顯後向。

「恆/國指比率」處50天線以下長達24天後，始終未能返回其上，縱使並未見創出逾 6.4% 新差距，但國指所處弱勢，看來並非三五七天內所能扭轉。事實上，國內壓抑過熱經濟的決心正愈見昭然，陰霾不似會在短期內消散，加上股市調整多少將秧及內企末季盈利，升不高也屬合理發展。

為文時尚未有聯儲局議息結果，如無意外減 0.25%，對市場不會構成振奮力量，加上早一天瑞信(UBS)剛公布需再為次按大幅撇帳，若過兩天大戶趁美股反彈得八八九九炒低，這類隨時接踵而至的壞消息，可能又會成為焦點，小心為要！

日．．．恆／國．．．．．．．．與平均比率差距．．．．．．．．
期．．．指比率．5MA．． 10MA (+-%)．．20MA (+-%)．．50MA (+-%)
06/01/27 250.96% 253.24% 257.03%(-2.36%) 264.61%(-5.16%) 280.84%(-10.6%)
06/02/28 244.67% 239.28% 239.83%( 2.02%) 241.85%( 1.17%) 259.92%(-5.87%)
06/03/31 235.76% 236.91% 239.36%(-1.50%) 242.92%(-2.95%) 244.09%(-3.41%)
06/04/28 243.76% 241.71% 239.31%( 1.86%) 238.59%( 2.17%) 240.95%( 1.17%)
06/05/30 237.90% 237.68% 235.64%( 0.96%) 235.01%( 1.23%) 237.86%( 0.01%)
06/06/30 239.77% 243.60% 248.77%(-3.61%) 248.32%(-3.44%) 241.25%(-0.61%)
06/07/31 248.50% 247.22% 245.71%( 1.14%) 243.96%( 1.86%) 244.63%( 1.58%)
06/08/31 252.72% 248.54% 247.19%( 2.24%) 247.12%( 2.26%) 245.66%( 2.87%)
06/09/29 247.18% 247.50% 247.89%(-0.29%) 247.84%(-0.27%) 247.68%(-0.20%)
06/10/31 244.84% 243.69% 243.01%( 0.75%) 245.41%(-0.24%) 246.84%(-0.81%)
06/11/30 221.85% 224.86% 225.89%(-1.79%) 232.25%(-4.48%) 240.49%(-7.75%)
06/12/29 193.08% 196.42% 202.78%(-4.79%) 210.04%(-8.07%) 226.0%(-14.57%)
07/01/31 209.39% 209.48% 208.09%( 0.62%) 204.13%( 2.58%) 209.41%(-0.01%)
07/02/28 211.68% 209.01% 208.07%( 1.73%) 209.50%( 1.04%) 205.25%( 3.13%)
07/03/30 205.91% 206.29% 207.60%(-0.81%) 209.13%(-1.54%) 209.31%(-1.63%)
07/04/30 202.48% 201.80% 201.58%( 0.45%) 202.55%(-0.03%) 206.66%(-2.02%)
07/05/31 192.14% 193.12% 192.57%(-0.23%) 194.69%(-1.31%) 200.41%(-4.13%)
07/06/29 181.42% 181.97% 181.71%(-0.16%) 185.35%(-2.12%) 192.39%(-5.70%)
07/07/31 173.49% 174.14% 175.45%(-1.12%) 175.58%(-1.19%) 182.62%(-5.00%)
07/08/31 167.27% 167.99% 172.23%(-2.88%) 175.76%(-4.83%) 176.45%(-5.21%)
07/09/28 159.49% 162.23% 164.80%(-3.22%) 166.02%(-3.93%) 171.87%(-7.20%)
07/10/31 156.41% 155.23% 152.76%( 2.39%) 154.02%( 1.55%) 162.25%(-3.60%)
．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．．
07/11/01 155.81% 155.85% 153.16%( 1.73%) 153.88%( 1.26%) 161.76%(-3.68%)
07/11/26 167.01% 166.98% 166.05%( 0.58%) 162.62%( 2.70%) 159.92%( 4.43%)
07/11/27 167.15% 167.37% 166.11%( 0.63%) 163.22%( 2.41%) 159.87%( 4.55%)
07/11/28 167.28% 167.54% 166.48%( 0.48%) 163.76%( 2.15%) 159.83%( 4.66%)
07/11/29 167.41% 167.60% 166.78%( 0.37%) 164.34%( 1.86%) 159.82%( 4.74%)
07/11/30 166.74% 167.12% 166.96%(-0.13%) 164.88%( 1.13%) 159.81%( 4.33%)
07/12/03 167.00% 167.12% 167.05%(-0.03%) 165.32%( 1.02%) 159.80%( 4.51%)
07/12/04 167.95% 167.28% 167.32%( 0.38%) 165.76%( 1.33%) 159.86%( 5.06%)
07/12/05 166.36% 167.09% 167.31%(-0.57%) 166.07%( 0.17%) 159.89%( 4.04%)
07/12/06 166.15% 166.84% 167.22%(-0.64%) 166.26%(-0.06%) 159.98%( 3.86%)
07/12/07 163.70% 166.23% 166.67%(-1.78%) 166.31%(-1.57%) 160.00%( 2.31%)
07/12/10 165.83% 166.00% 166.56%(-0.44%) 166.30%(-0.29%) 160.07%( 3.60%)
07/12/11 166.48% 165.70% 166.49%(-0.01%) 166.30%( 0.11%) 160.20%( 3.92%)